運用市場智慧,卻不要被市場牽著走
賠率反映其他人的看法,這是市場智慧的一種,亦可理解作隱含機率。這就是說,即使你對某隻馬跑出的偶然性並不了解,你亦可透過賠率去估算有關機率。同時也有陰謀論的學派,以市場被操控為思考的基礎,而得到內幕消息的人一般是大戶,資金亦較多,他們的投注會影響賠率。因此,投注時考慮賠率對提升勝率有幫助。可是,要注意的是,如果我們往往只用賠率去考慮投注決策,這樣我們只會永遠活在市場的尾巴。賭馬是一個零和遊戲,你必須向市場展示你的個人分析和決策能力,方可從其他賭徒的手中贏錢。只跟着其他人的想法走,你只可以輸少,卻不可能贏大。真正的長勝方法,是先有自己獨到的見解,再結合賠率因素,做最終投注決定。底層分析是第一步,市場因素是最後一步。
Learn from odds, not led by odds
Odds are market insights, and can be understood as implied probabilities. Even if you have zero knowledge of a race, you can still use odds information to estiamte the chance of a horse winning. There's also a conspiracy theory bases its thinking on market manipulation, suggesting that those with insider information are usually large bettors with substantial funds, and their betting influences the odds. Therefore, considering odds when betting can help improve your winning percentage. However, it's important to note that if we only consider odds in our betting decisions, we'll always be at the tail end of the market. Horse racing is a zero-sum game; you must demonstrate your personal analytical and decision-making abilities to the market to win from other bettors. Simply following others' ideas may result in smaller losses, but never large wins. The true method for long-term success is to first develop your own unique insights, then combine with odds factors to formulate your final betting decisions. Fundamental analysis is the first step; market factors are the last.
运用市场智慧,却不要被市场牵着走
赔率反映其他人的看法,这是市场智慧的一种,亦可理解作隐含机率。这就是说,即使你对某只马跑出的偶然性并不了解,你亦可透过赔率去估算有关机率。同时也有阴谋论的学派,以市场被操控为思考的基础,而得到内幕消息的人一般是大户,资金亦较多,他们的投注会影响赔率。因此,投注时考虑赔率对提升胜率有帮助。可是,要注意的是,如果我们往往只用赔率去考虑投注决策,这样我们只会永远活在市场的尾巴。赌马是一个零和游戏,你必须向市场展示你的个人分析和决策能力,方可从其他赌徒的手中赢钱。只跟着其他人的想法走,你只可以输少,却不可能赢大。真正的长胜方法,是先有自己独到的见解,再结合赔率因素,做最终投注决定。底层分析是第一步,市场因素是最后一步。